Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 106,436
2 South Dakota 94,214
3 Iowa 75,662
4 Wisconsin 73,256
5 Nebraska 69,638
6 Utah 64,334
7 Montana 61,043
8 Wyoming 60,608
9 Illinois 60,071
10 Idaho 59,808
11 Minnesota 59,167
12 Rhode Island 57,319
13 Kansas 56,846
14 Tennessee 55,596
15 Arkansas 54,446
16 Indiana 53,798
17 Mississippi 53,436
18 Alabama 53,099
19 Missouri 53,038
20 Louisiana 52,503
21 Nevada 52,048
22 Oklahoma 51,566
23 New Mexico 49,061
24 Florida 47,911
25 Arizona 47,829
26 Alaska 46,992
27 Texas 45,197
28 Georgia 44,262
29 Kentucky 43,613
30 South Carolina 43,324
31 Colorado 43,200
32 Michigan 41,091
33 New Jersey 39,723
34 Delaware 38,465
35 Ohio 38,228
36 North Carolina 36,076
37 Connecticut 35,390
38 Massachusetts 34,952
39 New York 34,896
40 Maryland 34,026
41 California 32,746
42 District of Columbia 31,404
43 Pennsylvania 30,667
44 Virginia 28,645
45 West Virginia 28,471
46 Puerto Rico 27,466
47 Washington 23,654
48 Oregon 18,800
49 New Hampshire 16,860
50 Hawaii 12,893
51 Maine 9,339
52 Vermont 7,439

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,258
2 Utah 1,092
3 South Dakota 1,086
4 Wyoming 1,021
5 Indiana 1,014
6 Arizona 965
7 Nebraska 964
8 Montana 931
9 New Mexico 918
10 Alaska 897
11 Idaho 881
12 Illinois 878
13 Minnesota 878
14 Kentucky 865
15 Iowa 854
16 Wisconsin 847
17 Louisiana 836
18 Connecticut 830
19 Colorado 826
20 Nevada 821
21 North Dakota 810
22 Arkansas 767
23 Alabama 736
24 Ohio 735
25 Michigan 734
26 Massachusetts 714
27 Pennsylvania 667
28 Tennessee 647
29 Mississippi 645
30 Delaware 616
31 Kansas 593
32 West Virginia 592
33 Missouri 572
34 Texas 556
35 Oklahoma 530
36 New Jersey 514
37 Georgia 490
38 California 478
39 New Hampshire 473
40 Florida 461
41 New York 447
42 North Carolina 425
43 Maryland 386
44 South Carolina 360
45 Washington 348
46 Oregon 303
47 District of Columbia 289
48 Virginia 260
49 Vermont 251
50 Maine 197
51 Puerto Rico 162
52 Hawaii 58

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,937
2 New York 1,765
3 Massachusetts 1,577
4 Connecticut 1,433
5 Louisiana 1,403
6 Rhode Island 1,321
7 Mississippi 1,303
8 North Dakota 1,289
9 South Dakota 1,167
10 Illinois 1,077
11 Michigan 1,004
12 District of Columbia 980
13 Arizona 938
14 Indiana 896
15 Georgia 883
16 Florida 878
17 South Carolina 867
18 Pennsylvania 859
19 Arkansas 846
20 Iowa 825
21 Delaware 799
22 New Mexico 797
23 Maryland 788
24 Texas 780
25 Alabama 770
26 Nevada 733
27 Missouri 696
28 Tennessee 692
29 Minnesota 681
30 Montana 676
31 Wisconsin 649
32 Nebraska 606
33 Colorado 579
34 Ohio 577
35 Kansas 576
36 Idaho 572
37 North Carolina 520
38 California 495
39 Kentucky 489
40 Virginia 485
41 Oklahoma 463
42 Wyoming 444
43 West Virginia 440
44 New Hampshire 400
45 Washington 399
46 Puerto Rico 361
47 Utah 286
48 Oregon 230
49 Hawaii 172
50 Alaska 169
51 Maine 163
52 Vermont 120

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 32
2 Wyoming 24
3 Nebraska 23
4 North Dakota 21
5 Iowa 18
6 Idaho 16
7 Illinois 16
8 New Mexico 16
9 Colorado 15
10 Indiana 15
11 Michigan 15
12 Missouri 15
13 Wisconsin 15
14 Pennsylvania 14
15 Alabama 13
16 Kansas 13
17 Montana 12
18 Minnesota 11
19 Nevada 11
20 West Virginia 10
21 Ohio 9
22 Arizona 8
23 Connecticut 8
24 Kentucky 8
25 Mississippi 8
26 New Jersey 8
27 Rhode Island 8
28 Tennessee 8
29 Louisiana 7
30 Oklahoma 7
31 Texas 7
32 Maine 6
33 Maryland 6
34 Massachusetts 6
35 Washington 6
36 Arkansas 5
37 District of Columbia 5
38 Georgia 5
39 North Carolina 5
40 Puerto Rico 5
41 South Carolina 5
42 Alaska 4
43 Florida 4
44 New Hampshire 4
45 Oregon 4
46 Utah 4
47 California 3
48 New York 3
49 Vermont 3
50 Virginia 3
51 Delaware 2
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 214,321 1 99
Norton Kansas 206,491 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 199,536 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 196,228 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 195,025 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 69,859 495 84
Richland South Carolina 50,245 1276 59
York South Carolina 36,305 2065 34
Orange California 26,434 2548 18
Pierce Washington 21,135 2748 12

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 5,952 3 99
Hancock Georgia 5,558 4 99
Turner South Dakota 5,367 5 99
Richland South Carolina 729 1374 56
Davidson Tennessee 618 1606 48
Orange California 499 1895 39
York South Carolina 491 1918 38
Pierce Washington 362 2249 28

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons